Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page.  Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum.

AUGUST 22,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

PANIC – From The New York Times – Hillary Rodham Clinton had planned to spend the last two weeks of August on vacation, unwinding and fund-raising on the exclusive shores of Long Island. But, as it turns out, this is no time for a vacation.  Amid concerns about Mrs. Clinton’s softening poll numbers and her exclusive use of a personal email server as secretary of state, she will interrupt her Hamptons stay next week to travel to the Midwest and try to shift attention back to her campaign message by unveiling new policy positions.  She will then return to the Hamptons, where she and former President Bill Clinton are renting a beachside estate in Amagansett that costs $100,000 for a two-week stay, and will attend several $2,700-per-person fund-raisers hosted there by her wealthy friends.  The optics are awful, just awful.  She interrupts this vastly lavish vacation to spend a bit of time with the peasantry, then will return to her real friends, who'll shell out $5,400 a couple to go to another party.  Woman of the people.  She looks increasingly incompetent and out of touch.  Maybe it's time to retire to a British castle.

MIGRANT CRISIS – There is a migrant crisis in the Mediterranean, which may lead to a new flood of immigrants into Europe, at a time of economic stress.  From AFP:   Rome (AFP) - Italy's coastguard on Saturday successfully coordinated the rescue of around 3000 migrants in the Mediterranean after receiving distress calls from more than 20 overcrowded vessels drifting in waters off Libya.  One of the biggest single-day rescue operations to date appeared to have been concluded without any reports of casualties.  Two navy ships, the Cigala Fulgosi and the Vega, picked up, respectively, 507 and 432 migrants from two wooden boats in danger of sinking just off Libya, the navy said.  The coastguard said its patrol boats had boarded a total of just under 1,000 people from various unseaworthy fishing boats and inflatables that had left Libya overnight Friday-Saturday.  This has explosive potential.  There was anti-violence in Germany yesterday, and growing friction with immigrant groups throughout Europe.  In the event of a severe economic turndown, this can turn very ugly.

CRUZ DOES IT AGAIN – Whether you like him or not, you've got to hand it to Ted Cruz.  He's one of the most effective speakers and debaters in the GOP, and he pretty much levels every opponent he meets.  From AP:   Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was the hands-down favorite of the Americans for Prosperity annual summit in Columbus, Ohio, this weekend, if the number and volume of ovations during the speeches of five presidential candidates who addressed the annual convention of tea party activists was the measure.  At the other end of the spectrum was former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a newcomer to events financed by conservative industrialists Charles and David Koch. Bush was attending his first national conference of Americans for Prosperity and was greeted with respectful but restrained applause by a group that rose essentially out of Republican dissatisfaction with federal spending under his brother, former President George W. Bush.  Bush is simply doing poorly, despite a fine record as governor of Florida.  His "people" say he's maintaining a disciplined pace, going for the long haul, and that may well turn out to be true.  But there are many reports that his donors are frustrated by his lackluster performance thus far.

August 22, 2015       Permalink

TRUMP SPEAKS – AT 1:23 P.M. ET:  It was the biggest rally of the election campaign so far, covered live on both Fox and CNN.  We got a chance to see Trump up close, delivering a full performance.  From the New York Post: 

Donald Trump scored the biggest crowd of any presidential candidate so far this election year Friday, drawing 30,000 raucous, cheering fans to his rally at a college football stadium in Mobile, Ala.

“I’m going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created. You are going to be so proud,” he declared to tremendous cheers.

The bombastic businessman kicked off an hourlong monologue about himself at Ladd Peebles Stadium with a joke about his hair. “If it rains, right, I’ll take off my hat and I’ll prove once and for all that it’s mine,” he quipped.

Then he repeated his promise to build a wall along the southern border to keep out Mexicans.

He claimed that “7.5 percent of all of the births in this country are illegal immigrants . . . 300,000 babies a year that you have to take care of, that we all have to take care of. In the case of other countries, they don’t do that.”

He boasted about his annual income of $400 million a year and bashed politicians for accepting lobbyists’ cash. “I don’t want your money,’’ he insisted.

He took a direct shot at Jeb Bush, saying the former Florida governor has “very low energy” and is “weak on immigration.”

Bush got a dig in before Trump took the stage when his supporters flew a plane over the stadium with a banner that read: “Trump 4 Higher Taxes. Jeb 4 Prez.”

COMMENT:  So I watched, and carefully.  Look, he's not a stupid man.  He has a way of hitting the very problems that people are concerned about.  He has that ability.  And he understands what makes those people concerned.  On many issues he is absolutely right.  Yes, he's right, there's too much political correctness.  Yes, we are militarily weak compared to where we should be.  Yes, we are seen as a diminished nation.  Yes, our economy is in rags.

And Trump knows how to reach people.  He can be very refreshing.

The problem, though, is that he's coarse.  His is the kind of personality that wears out its welcome.  Note Chris Christie, who has the same problem.  Also, Trump has no record of public service.  He does not prepare his remarks carefully.  He's often short on facts, and certainly on solutions.  Last night he rambled.  It was almost stream of consciousness.  You have to take him on faith. 

He is a rougher version of Ross Perot, who ran as an independent in 1992, and broke into George H.W. Bush's vote, making possible the election of Bill Clinton.  When people asked Perot to specify a solution to a problem, he acted as if they were stupid for asking.  Eventually people caught on.  He had no real solutions.

Trump's speeches are about Trump.  His ego is supreme.  Look, maybe he would be a great president.  He certainly has identified the problems.  But I wonder if he can sustain a campaign, which will have to last more than a year, without buckling down and doing serious homework.  Reagan was a great campaigner, but he knew his stuff and had a record as a two-term governor of our largest state.  Right now, Trump may be asking for too much trust based on too little being offered.

August 22, 2015       Permalink

THE TRAIN ATTACK IN FRANCE – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  We now know more about heroic Americans, aided by a Brit, stopping a terror attack on a French train yesterday, but there is curiously little about the attacker.  I watched a TV report just minutes ago, and finally shut it off in frustration when I realized that not one word was spoken about the man who was clearly preparing a massacre.  Has political correctness taken over once more?  From the New York Post: 

Two off-duty members of the US military prevented a massacre Friday by overpowering a rifle-wielding madman after he opened fire aboard a high-speed train in France, wounding three people. 

The gunman, identified by authorities as Moroccan national Sliman Hamzi, is a known Islamic militant, CNN reported, quoting a senior European anti-terrorism official.  Anthony Sadler and Alek Skarlatos received medals for the roles they played in stopping the gunman.

The gunfire took place in the rear car of the Paris to Amsterdam express. Three people were shot, including one of the Americans, who was seriously wounded but expected to survive.

A friend of the heroes, Anthony Sadler, also was aboard the train and saw what happened. He identified them as Spencer Stone, of Sacramento, who was injured and Alek Skarlatos of Roseburg, Ore., who was unhurt.

COMMENT:  A statement from the White House praises the heroic men who stopped the attack, but, as usual, doesn't mention the motivation of the attacker.  I guess it was just your generic terrorist. 

August 22, 2015       Permalink

COOLING OFF? – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  The situation on the Korean armistice line is exceptionally tense.  Reporters say it's the most critical in years, with the possibility of a military action, or mistake, prominent in everyone's thinking.  But there are now attempts to cool things.  From Fox:

South Korea and North Korea agreed on Saturday to hold high-level talks at the border village of Panmunjom to defuse mounting tensions that have pushed the rivals to the brink of a possible military confrontation.

The meeting is scheduled to take place at 6 p.m. Seoul time, 30 minutes after the deadline set by North Korea for the South to take down the loudspeakers broadcasting anti-North Korean propaganda at their border. North Korea has declared its frontline troops are in full war readiness and prepared to go to war if Seoul doesn’t back down.

South Korea’s national security director Kim Kwan-jin and Unification Minister Hong Yong-pyo will sit with Hwang Pyong So, the top political officer for the Korean People’s Army, according to the South Korean presidential office. Hwang is considered to be North Korea’s second most important official after supreme leader Kim Jong Un, and Kim Yang Gon, a secretary of the central committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea and a senior official responsible for South Korea affairs.

The meeting comes as a series of incidents, starting with the North's alleged land mine attack that maimed two South Korean soldiers and the South's resumption of anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts, raised fears that the conflict could spiral out of control.

A South Korean Defense Ministry official, who didn’t want to be identified, said the South will continue with the anti-North Korean broadcasts until the end of North Korea’s deadline, but hasn’t made a decision whether to continue with them if the high-level meeting goes as planned.

In the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, businesses were open as usual and street stalls selling ice cream were crowded as residents took breaks under parasols from the summer sun. There was no visible signs of increased security measures, though the city is even under normal situations heavily secured and fortified. More than 240 South Koreans entered a jointly-run industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

North Korea’s state-run media agency has strongly publicized its rhetoric, saying the whole nation is bracing for the possibility of an all-out war. Leader Kim Jong Un has been shown repeatedly on TV news broadcasts leading a strategy meeting with top military brass to review the North’s attack plan and young people are reportedly swarming recruitment centers to sign up to join the fight.

COMMENT:  We hope this ends peacefully, but we have to wonder why the North is so belligerent and provocative.  Could it be – I am speculating – that it senses a weakness and lack of resolve in the South's major protector, the United States? 

August 22,  2015     Permalink

AUGUST 21,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

STOPPING A TERROR ATTACK – We still do not have all the details on this.  From Fox:   Off-duty members of the U.S. military subdued a gunman "known to intelligence services" after he opened fire, injuring three aboard on a high-speed train en route to Paris from Amsterdam Friday.  Three U.S. servicemen were on board the train and overpowered the man when the train stopped in the northern French city of Arras, 115 miles north of Paris, French media reported. Some reports said the men were U.S. Marines but that could not be confirmed.  The French are being tight-lipped.  If the attack had succeeded, many, many people could have died.  There's got to be more to this story.  We'll be looking.

SELLOFF – There is worry in the stock market.  From Fox:  Wall Street plunged for a second-straight day, forcing all three major U.S. averages to give up their 2015 gains and causing the Dow to easily enter correction territory.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 530 points, or 3.11% to 16462. The S&P 500 shed 64 points, or 3.17% to 1971, while the Nasdaq plunged 171 points, or 3.52% to 4706.  Technology and energy stocks took the biggest hit during the session, with the respective sectors dropping 4.21% and 3.48%.  There is worry about a number of issues, including the state of the Chinese economy.   Market observers will be looking to see if the dive continues into next week.  Clearly, if there's a major adjustment, it could affect the 2016 election result, especially if unemployment starts to rise.

COMMON SENSE – From The Hill:   Two out of three black people prefer the term “all lives matter” to “black lives matter,” according to a Rasmussen poll released Thursday.  Only 31 percent of black people surveyed said that the statement “black lives matter” most closely comports to their own beliefs, compared to 64 percent who chose “all lives matter.”  Seventy-eight percent of total respondents also chose “all lives matter,” including 81 percent of white and 76 percent of minority respondents, according to the poll.  Good common sense from the African-American community. 

August 21, 2015      Permalink

YIKES!  TRUMP IS TRUMPING – AT 11:21 A.M. ET:  He may just be the man of the moment, but the numbers don't lie.  From Rasmussen:

Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has captured the public’s attention for better or worse, and his bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, once seen as a pipe dream, is now a topic of serious discussion. So for the near future at least, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely Republican Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 27% who felt a Trump nomination was likely two months ago when he formally announced his presidential bid, a finding that included just nine percent (9%) who said it was Very Likely.

At that time, Trump ran near the bottom among the 12 declared GOP candidates. Now he leads the pack of Republican hopefuls which has grown to include 17 prominent contenders.

Among all likely voters, 49% think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to 23% and seven percent (7%) respectively in the earlier survey. Forty-eight percent (48%) now say Trump is not likely to win the nomination, with 21% who feel it is Not At All Likely.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Republican voters say Trump is unlikely to be their party’s standard-bearer next year, but that includes just 15% who say it’s Not At All Likely. That’s down from 29% who said a Trump nomination was Not At All Likely two months ago.

COMMENT:  I still wouldn't make assumptions.  The party conventions are a full year away.  Pundits sometimes write as if the election will be held next week.  It's part of the journalistic game of building excitement and selling papers, or building viewership.

Plenty of time for things to happen.

August 21, 2015       Permalink

OBAMA – NO GOOD FOR DEMS – AT 10:29 A.M. ET:  President Obama will leave behind the wreckage of his political party, even if it wins the presidency next year.  From The Politico:   

As historians begin to assess Barack Obama’s record as president, there’s at least one legacy he’ll leave that will indeed be historic—but not in the way he would have hoped. Even as Democrats look favorably ahead to the presidential landscape of 2016, the strength in the Electoral College belies huge losses across much of the country. In fact, no president in modern times has presided over so disastrous a stretch for his party, at almost every level of politics.

Legacies are often tough to measure. If you want to see just how tricky they can be, consider the campaign to get Andrew Jackson off the $20 bill 178 years after he left the White House. Working class hero? How about slave owner and champion of Native American genocide? Or watch how JFK went from beloved martyr to the man whose imperial overreach entrapped us in Vietnam, and then back to the president whose prudence kept the Cuban Missile Crisis from turning into World War III.

Yet when you move from policy to politics, the task is a lot simpler—just measure the clout of the president’s party when he took office and when he left it. By that measure, Obama’s six years have been terrible.

Under Obama, the party started strong. “When Obama was elected in 2008, Democrats were at a high water mark,” says David Axelrod, who served as one of Obama’s top strategists. “Driven by antipathy to George W. Bush and then the Obama wave, Democrats had enjoyed two banner elections in ’06 and ’08. We won dozens of improbable congressional elections in states and districts that normally would tack Republican, and that effect trickled down to other offices. You add to that the fact that we would take office in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression, and it was apparent, from Day One, that we had nowhere to go but down.”

The first signs of the slowly unfolding debacle that has meant the decimation of the Democratic Party nationally began early—with the special election of Scott Brown to Ted Kennedy’s empty Senate seat in Massachusetts. That early loss, even though the seat was won back eventually by Elizabeth Warren, presaged the 2010 midterms, which saw the loss of 63 House and six Senate seats. It was disaster that came as no surprise to the White House, but also proved a signal of what was to come.

The party’s record over the past six years has made clear that when Barack Obama leaves office in January 2017 the Democratic Party will have ceded vast sections of the country to Republicans, and will be left with a weak bench of high-level elected officials. It is, in fact, so bleak a record that even if the Democrats hold the White House and retake the Senate in 2016, the party’s wounds will remain deep and enduring, threatening the enactment of anything like a “progressive” agenda across much of the nation and eliminating nearly a decade’s worth of rising stars who might help strengthen the party in elections ahead.

COMMENT:  I think the GOP will hold the Senate in 2016, although it may suffer some losses.  But predictions that America will become a permanent Democratic stronghold have evaporated.  Democratic hopes for a "majority minority" country that will be reliably Democratic will also evaporate with the realization that minority groups are not necessarily allies, and often turn against each other. 

August 21, 2015       Permalink

OIL – THE GOOD AND BAD NEWS – AT 9:59 A.M. ET:   Oil prices are dropping, and, with them, gasoline prices at the pump should drop even further.  From Reuters:

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices headed for their eighth consecutive week of falls on Friday, the longest losing streak since 1986, after a sharp drop in Chinese manufacturing increased worries over the health of the world's biggest energy consumer.

Activity in China's factory sector shrank at its fastest pace in almost 6-1/2 years in August as domestic and export demand dwindled, adding to worries about lower consumption of crude in the second-biggest oil user.

Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower as fears took hold of a China-led slowdown in global growth.

U.S. crude for October delivery <CLc1> was 50 cents lower at $40.92 a barrel by 1230 GMT. On Thursday, the September U.S. crude contract <CLU5> saw its lowest intraday trade since March 2009 at $40.21 a barrel before it expired at the market close.

Brent oil <LCOc1> was on track for its seventh weekly decline in eight, down 60 cents at $46.02 a barrel, after settling 54 cents lower on Thursday.

Both global oil benchmarks are near 6-1/2-year lows, with U.S. crude heading for its longest weekly losing streak in 29 years.

"The market is stuck in a relentless downtrend," said Robin Bieber, a director at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

"The trend is down - stick with it."

COMMENT:  It's good news for the consumer, but there has to be a cautionary note.  The demand for crude oil is declining, and that is affecting the production of oil in the United States.  That production, which has dramatically increased because of new methods of extraction, has made America far less dependent on foreign oil, and created an energy boom in our own country.  But production is slowing, which means fewer jobs in the energy sector, especially in places like the Dakotas.  The new energy infrastructure may start to weaken.  While Al Gore might be happy, American labor will not be.

So there is a downside to lower oil prices, and we must be aware of it.

August 21, 2015       Permalink

OBAMA SLIPS IN MAJOR POLL – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  The CNN/ORC poll, which tilts somewhat Democratic, has President Obama slipping in approval and rising in disapproval.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) After a brief bump into positive territory, disapproval of President Barack Obama is on the rise amid dismal reviews of his work on several foreign policy issues and a sense that his policies would lead the country in the wrong direction.

According to a new CNN/ORC Poll, Obama's disapproval rating has inched above 50%, with 51% now saying they disapprove of how he's handling the presidency and 47% approving.

That's a negative shift since late-July, when 49% approved and 47% disapproved. Majorities also disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy and foreign affairs, as 52% say the policies Obama has proposed would move the country in the wrong direction.

Assessing Obama's handling of several issues, the President fares worst on his handling of ISIS, the Islamic militant group that controls some areas of Iraq and Syria, with 62% disapproving of how the President is dealing with the group. Nearly as many, 60% say they disapprove of his management of the U.S. relationship with Iran.

On both issues, Obama earns notably higher disapproval ratings among Democrats than he does on other issues: 35% disapprove of his handling of ISIS, 30% Iran. His next highest disapproval rating among Democrats is 23% on his handling of foreign affairs generally.

Amid pessimism that either Obama or the GOP leadership in Congress could move the nation in the right direction, a majority say the country is already headed in the wrong one. Asked how things are going in the country today, 52% say badly, suggesting the negative shift that emerged in a May CNN/ORC poll has continued.

Increasing disapproval toward Obama is largely due to a worsening of already-bad ratings among Republicans. In July, 82% of Republicans disapproved, that rose to 89% in the new poll, while among Democrats and independents, his approval rating has held steady (85% of Democrats approve now, 84% in July, while 42% of independents approved in both polls).

COMMENT:  I think other polls may show an even lower approval rating for Obama, somewhere in the lower 40s.  He still has a base that will not leave him even if he surrenders the United States to ISIS.  But Americans are coming to understand how dangerous this president is, especially in foreign affairs.

But we should not rest.  Approval ratings for the Republican Party are also in negative territory.  It will take a great presidential nominee to change that.

August 21,  2015      Permalink